{"id":7662,"date":"2025-02-07T10:25:30","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T02:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tenten.co\/blog\/?p=7662"},"modified":"2025-02-07T15:37:11","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T07:37:11","slug":"micron-investment-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tenten.co\/blog\/blog-post\/micron-investment-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u5149\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u6301\u7e8c\u84ec\u52c3\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u6301"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364038.jpg\" alt=\"Electronics worker checking small electronic chips in clean room laboratory, close up\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU; NEOE:MU:CA) \u662f\u4e00\u9805\u5c0d\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u6210\u9577\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5169\u5927\u8da8\u52e2\u63a8\u52d5\uff1a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\uff08AI) \u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u5c0d\u570b\u5167\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>The Business of Micron Technology<\/h2>\n<p>Micron Technology \u662f\u5168\u7403\u9818\u5148\u7684\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5c08\u9580\u5f9e\u4e8b\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u8207\u5132\u5b58\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u7814\u767c\u8207\u751f\u7522\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u4e3b\u8981\u4ee5 Micron \u548c Crucial \u7b49\u54c1\u724c\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u500b\u4eba\u96fb\u8166\u3001\u667a\u6167\u578b\u624b\u6a5f\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u52d5\u88dd\u7f6e\u3001\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u53ca\u6d88\u8cbb\u6027\u96fb\u5b50\u7cfb\u7d71\u7b49\u9818\u57df\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3002\u7f8e\u5149\u79d1\u6280\u4f9d\u64da\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5169\u9805\u6a19\u6e96\u4f86\u5283\u5206\u71df\u6536\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u6280\u8853\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u52d5\u614b\u96a8\u6a5f\u5b58\u53d6\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\uff08DRAM\uff09\u3002\u7f8e\u5149\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684 DRAM \u6676\u7247\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0cDRAM \u5ee3\u6cdb\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001\u500b\u4eba\u96fb\u8166\u3001\u884c\u52d5\u88dd\u7f6e\u3001\u904a\u6232\u4e3b\u6a5f\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c7d\u8eca\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002DRAM \u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5b63\u7d04\u4f54\u516c\u53f8\u71df\u6536\u7684 73%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>NAND \u5feb\u9583\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u3002\u7f8e\u5149\u7684 NAND \u7522\u54c1\u5305\u62ec SSD\u3001\u96a8\u8eab\u789f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u5132\u5b58\u88dd\u7f6e\u3002<\/li>\n<li>NOR \u5feb\u9583\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u6280\u8853\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2. \u4e8b\u696d\u90e8\u9580\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Compute and networking (CNBU)\uff1a\u6db5\u84cb\u92b7\u552e\u81f3\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001PC\u3001\u7e6a\u5716\u548c\u7db2\u8def\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u7522\u54c1\u8207\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Storage (SBU)\uff1a\u5305\u62ec\u92b7\u552e\u81f3\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3001PC \u548c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u56fa\u614b\u786c\u789f\u548c\u5143\u4ef6\u7d1a\u5132\u5b58\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Mobile (MBU)\uff1a\u92b7\u552e\u81f3\u667a\u6167\u578b\u624b\u6a5f\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u52d5\u88dd\u7f6e\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u8207\u5132\u5b58\u7522\u54c1\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Embedded (EBU)\uff1a\u6db5\u84cb\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u5de5\u696d\u53ca\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5d4c\u5165\u5f0f\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u8207\u5132\u5b58\u7522\u54c1\u53ca\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364066.png\" alt=\"Micron&#039;s revenue by technology\" \/><br \/>\nCompany data, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<h2>The investment idea for Micron is based on 2 trends:<\/h2>\n<p><strong>1. \u653f\u5e9c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u8a0a\u79d1\u6280\u7522\u696d\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/strong> \u53bb\u5e74 12 \u6708\uff0cMicron \u8868\u793a\u5df2\u6572\u5b9a \u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u5546\u52d9\u90e8\u7684 61 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u652f\u6301\u5728\u611b\u9054\u8377\u5dde\uff0815 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u53ca\u7d10\u7d04\u5dde\uff0846 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u8208\u5efa DRAM \u88fd\u9020\u5ee0\u3002\u9019\u7b46\u8cc7\u91d1\u5c07\u5354\u52a9 Micron \u63a8\u52d5\u5176\u9577\u671f\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u5373\u5728\u7d10\u7d04\u6295\u8cc7\u7d04 1000 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3001\u5728\u611b\u9054\u8377\u5dde\u6295\u8cc7 250 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6210\u70ba CHIPS \u6cd5\u6848\uff08\u7e3d\u984d\u8fd1 530 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u5c0d\u6676\u7247\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u6700\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u88dc\u52a9\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. AI \u767c\u5c55\u8207\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u64f4\u5f35\u3002<\/strong> Micron \u5728\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u6676\u7247\u5e02\u5834\uff08\u5305\u542b DRAM \u8207 NAND\uff09\u64c1\u6709\u7a69\u56fa\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5b63\u986f\u793a\uff0cMicron \u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u71df\u6536\u98c6\u5347\u4e86 400%\uff0c\u8d85\u904e\u516c\u53f8\u7e3d\u71df\u6536\u7684 50%\u3002\u672a\u4f86\u6210\u9577\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a45\u52d5\u529b\u662f\u7528\u65bc\u4f3a\u670d\u5668\u6676\u7247\u7684\u9ad8\u983b\u5bec DRAM \u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\uff08HBM\uff09\u3002Micron \u9810\u4f30\uff0cHBM \u7e3d\u53ef\u958b\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u898f\u6a21\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5c07\u5f9e\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u7684 160 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5e7e\u4e4e\u500d\u589e\u81f3300 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u516c\u53f8\u57f7\u884c\u9577\u8868\u793a\uff0cMicron \u76ee\u6a19\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u53d6\u5f97 HBM \u5e02\u5834 20%-25% \u7684\u5e02\u4f54\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364073.png\" alt=\"Micron&#039;s revenue by end market\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Company data, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<p>\u516c\u53f8\u57f7\u884c\u9577\u540c\u6642\u8868\u793a\uff0cMicron \u65bc 2024 \u5e74\u4f86\u81ea HBM \u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u7684\u71df\u6536\u50c5\u6578\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46 2025 \u5e74\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u589e\u52a0\u81f3\u6578\u5341\u5104\u7f8e\u5143 (\u4f86\u6e90)\u3002\u6211\u5011\u63a8\u6e2c\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6700\u8fd1\uff0cMicron \u5728\u8a72\u9818\u57df\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5ba2\u6236\u662f NVIDIA\uff08\u5728\u6240\u6709\u696d\u52d9\u4e2d\u4f54 Micron \u7e3d\u71df\u6536\u7684 13%\uff09\uff0c\u70ba\u5176 Hopper \u6676\u7247\u63d0\u4f9b\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u3002Micron\u9810\u8a08\u4e5f\u5c07\u70ba Blackwell \u7cfb\u5217\u63d0\u4f9b\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u3002\u64da\u516c\u53f8\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6700\u8fd1\u958b\u59cb\u5411\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u5ba2\u6236\u51fa\u8ca8\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u8a08\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5411\u7b2c\u4e09\u5bb6\u5ba2\u6236\u51fa\u8ca8\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5c0d NVIDIA \u7684\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>The DRAM Market<\/h2>\n<p>2024 \u5e74\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u7d93\u6b77\u4e0b\u6ed1\u5f8c\uff0c\u96a8\u5e73\u5747\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u5347\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u9700\u6c42\u6210\u9577\u800c\u5448\u73fe\u4e0a\u63da\u3002\u9810\u8a08 2025 \u5e74\u4e0a\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u53d7\u5e02\u5834\u98fd\u548c\u548c DRAM \u8207 NAND \u50f9\u683c\u5728\u7d04 5% \u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u8173\u6b65\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7de9\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cMicron \u805a\u7126\u7814\u767c\u7684 HBM \u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u4ecd\u5c07\u56e0\u5728 DRAM \u7684\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u800c\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Outlook for the DRAM and HBM markets<\/h3>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u521d\u6b65\u8cc7\u6599\uff08Invest Heroes \u7684\u63a8\u7b97\uff09\uff0c2024 \u5e74 DRAM \u5e02\u5834\uff08\u542b HBM\uff09\u898f\u6a21\u9054 980 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e74\u589e\u7387 +89%\u3002Micron \u8207 Bloomberg Intelligence \u540c\u6a23\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c2024 \u5e74\u9ad8\u983b\u5bec\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u5e02\u5834\u5f9e\u524d\u4e00\u5e74\u6210\u9577\u7d04\u56db\u500d\uff0c\u4f86\u5230 160 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868 HBM \u5728 2024 \u5e74 DRAM \u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u70ba 16%-17%\uff0c\u5728\u8a72\u5e74\u5ea6\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u5b63\u7d04\u9054 21%\u3002\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f DRAM \u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u518d\u6210\u9577 37.4%\uff08\u81f3 1347 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u9700\u6c42\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981 IT \u696d\u8005\u64f4\u5927\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff0cHBM \u4f54\u6bd4\u5347\u81f3 29%-30%\uff08\u6839\u64da Statista \u7684\u9810\u4f30\uff09\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>\u6839\u64da Micron \u5728\u6700\u65b0\u5b63\u5ea6\u8ca1\u5831\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u51fa\u8ca8\u91cf\u5c07\u5e74\u589e\u7d04 20%\uff1b<\/li>\n<li>2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u6eab\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u65bc\u884c\u52d5\u88dd\u7f6e\uff08AI \u6574\u5408\uff09\u8207 PC\uff08Windows 10 \u7d42\u6b62\u652f\u63f4\uff09\u63db\u6a5f\u9031\u671f\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364080.png\" alt=\"The DRAM market\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Statista, calculations, and forecasts by Invest Heroes<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u9810\u6e2c HBM \u5e02\u5834\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5c07\u5e74\u589e 130%\uff0c\u9054 386 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc Micron \u9810\u4f30\u7684 300 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u6700\u8fd1\u5df2\u5c07 2025 \u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u898f\u6a21\u5f9e 250 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u4fee\u81f3 300 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u589e\u5e45 25%\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u7522\u80fd\u6709\u9650\u4e14\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u64f4\u5f35\u8fc5\u901f\uff0c\u8a72\u6578\u64da\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4fee\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u6211\u5011\u4f30\u8a08 HBM \u5728 DRAM \u4e2d\u7684\u4f54\u6bd4\u5c07\u63d0\u5347\u81f3\u7d04 30%\uff0c\u8207\u524d\u8ff0 Statista \u6578\u64da\u76f8\u7576\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5728\u8a55\u4f30 Micron \u64f4\u5927 HBM \u5e02\u4f54\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u76f8\u5c0d\u4fdd\u5b88\u3002\u6839\u64da Micron \u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\uff08\u4e09\u661f\u3001SK \u6d77\u529b\u58eb\uff09\u64f4\u7522 HBM \u6676\u7247\u7684\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a08 Micron \u7684\u5e02\u4f54\u7387\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u53ef\u671b\u9054\u5230 15%\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u6240\u6307\u7684 20%-25%\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u8a72\u7522\u54c1\u71df\u6536\u7d04 58 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u4f46\u4ecd\u9700\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u518d\u8abf\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/24\/48493874-17377305190298028_origin.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364086.png\" alt=\"HBM market and Micron&#039;s market share\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations, Statista, Company Data<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u65bc\u6211\u5011\u5c0d Micron 2025 \u5e74 HBM \u5e02\u4f54\u6210\u9577\u8da8\u52e2\u504f\u5411\u4fdd\u5b88\uff0c\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u6574\u9ad4 DRAM \u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5e02\u4f54\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747 21%-23% \u66ab\u6642\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3 19.9%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728 2026 \u5e74\u56de\u5347\u81f3 21%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364095.png\" alt=\"The DRAM market and Micron&#039;s market share\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Statista, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<h2>The NAND Market<\/h2>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u521d\u6b65\u8cc7\u6599\uff08Invest Heroes \u7684\u63a8\u7b97\uff09\uff0cNAND \u5e02\u5834\u5728 2024 \u5e74\u9054 658 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5e74\u589e 70.2%\uff09\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u50f9\u683c\u8207\u51fa\u8ca8\u91cf\u56de\u5347\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5c0d SSD \u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u7531\u65bc PC \u8207\u884c\u52d5\u88dd\u7f6e\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u8a08 2025 \u5e74 NAND \u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u5e74\u6e1b 2.6%\uff0c\u81f3 641 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u4f86\u81ea\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u53ef\u63d0\u4f9b\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba Micron \u5728 NAND \u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5e02\u4f54\u5927\u7d04\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u6e96 11.4%\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u5ba3\u4f48\u7e2e\u6e1b\u5728\u6b64\u9818\u57df\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\uff08\u4e09\u661f\u3001SK \u6d77\u529b\u58eb\u3001Kioxia\uff09\u540c\u6a23\u56e0\u9700\u6c42\u504f\u5f31\u800c\u6e1b\u5c11\u7522\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364101.png\" alt=\"The NAND market\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Statista, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<h2>Financial Metrics Outlook<\/h2>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u6211\u5011\u5c0d Micron \u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\u5e02\u5834\uff08DRAM\uff0c\u5305\u62ec HBM \u4ee5\u53ca NAND\uff09\u8207\u5e02\u4f54\u7684\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u8a72\u516c\u53f8 2025 \u5e74\u71df\u6536\u53ef\u9054 336 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5e74\u589e 33.7%\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc 2026 \u5e74\u6210\u9577\u81f3 436 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5e74\u589e 29.7%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364107.png\" alt=\"Micron&#039;s revenue forecast\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Company Data, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f Micron 2025 \u5e74 EBITDA \u7d04\u70ba 163 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5e74\u589e 79%\uff09\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u5247\u7d04\u70ba 223 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5e74\u589e 37%\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba Micron \u5728\u5ea6\u904e\u4e86 2023 \u5e74\u8f03\u70ba\u75b2\u5f31\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5f8c\uff0c\u5df2\u9032\u5165\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u53cd\u5f48\u7684\u9031\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/24\/48493874-17377311204806054_origin.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364113.png\" alt=\"Micron&#039;s EBITDA forecast\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Company Data, Invest Heroes&#8217; calculations<\/p>\n<h2>The risks that could shatter the investment case<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<p><strong>PC \u8207\u667a\u6167\u578b\u624b\u6a5f\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u5f31\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5eab\u5b58\u7d2f\u7a4d\u9020\u6210\u8a18\u61b6\u9ad4\u6676\u7247\u50f9\u683c\u4fee\u6b63\u3002<\/strong> \u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u9810\u671f\u5728 2025 \u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u6eab\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u9810\u6e2c\u6307\u51fa\u5e02\u6cc1\u5c07\u66f4\u65e9\u56de\u7a69\u30022025 \u8ca1\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u76f8\u5c0d\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u80a1\u50f9\u5728\u8ca1\u5831\u91cb\u51fa\u5f8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 17%\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u6050\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u81ea\u7531\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u5e36\u4f86\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/strong> \u8fd1 12 \u500b\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u5149\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u63a5\u8fd1 100 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c2025 \u8ca1\u5e74\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u66f4\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u6295\u5165 140 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u65bc\u65b0\u7522\u80fd\u5efa\u8a2d\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u76ee\u524d FCF \u5e7e\u8fd1\u65bc\u96f6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>\u4f86\u81ea SK \u6d77\u529b\u58eb\u8207\u4e09\u661f\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u58d3\u529b\u52a0\u5287\u3002<\/strong> \u5118\u7ba1 Micron \u5728 2025 \u5e74\u9810\u8a08\u5c07 HBM \u7522\u91cf\u64f4\u5927\u81f3\u539f\u5148\u7684\u4e09\u500d\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u8f03\u5176\u4ed6\u5169\u5bb6\u5ee0\u5546\u4ecd\u662f\u5f8c\u4f86\u8005\uff0c\u4e14\u5c0d\u624b\u5df2\u7d93\u4f54\u64da\u5f37\u52e2\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cSK \u6d77\u529b\u58eb\u5728 HBM \u5e02\u5834\u6301\u6709\u903e 40% \u7684\u4f54\u6bd4\uff0c\u800c NVIDIA \u4e5f\u540c\u6642\u8207\u4e09\u661f\u5408\u4f5c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c Micron \u672a\u80fd\u8ddf\u4e0a\u5feb\u901f\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6280\u8853\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u6216\u65b0\u7522\u80fd\u6295\u5165\u51fa\u73fe\u5ef6\u8aa4\uff0c\u5e02\u4f54\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u9054\u5230 20%-25% \u7684\u8a08\u756b\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3 HBM \u7684\u63a1\u7528\u901f\u5ea6\u8207\u4e16\u4ee3\u8f49\u63db\u5c07\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u70ba HBM3E\uff0c\u5c07\u88ab\u6574\u5408\u65bc NVIDIA \u7684 Blackwell \u6676\u7247\u7b49\u7522\u54c1\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u9810\u8a08 2026 \u5e74\u5c07\u8fce\u63a5 HBM4 \u7684\u8f49\u63db\u671f\uff0c\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\u9593\u53ef\u8b02\u300c\u6b65\u6b65\u7dca\u903c\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/static.seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2025\/1\/24\/48493874-17377312526982071_origin.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insight-s3.tenten.co\/2025\/02\/07\/17388952364119.png\" alt=\"HBM market players\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>\u6211\u5011\u4f9d\u64da EV\/EBITDA \u500d\u6578\u6cd5\u7d66\u4e88 Micron Technology \u6bcf\u80a1 139 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u50f9\uff0c\u8a72\u76ee\u6a19 EV\/EBITDA \u500d\u6578\u70ba 9.4 \u500d\uff08\u6b77\u53f2\u5e73\u5747\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u8f03\u76ee\u524d\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u4e0a\u6f32\u7a7a\u9593\u7d04\u70ba +35%\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Micron Technology &hellip;","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4978,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"csco_display_header_overlay":false,"csco_singular_sidebar":"","csco_page_header_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[547],"ppma_author":[533],"class_list":{"0":"post-7662","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blog-post","8":"tag-stock","9":"cs-entry"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u7f8e\u5149\uff1a\u62bc\u6ce8\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u6167\u6301\u7e8c\u84ec\u52c3\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u653f\u5e9c\u652f\u6301 - Tenten Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU; NEOE:MU:CA) 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